Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3265 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3265 CAE 06:52 → DFW 08:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5437 CAE 14:02 → DFW 15:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3265 American	CAE 06:52	DFW 08:48	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 4066 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 17:25	DFW 19:10	19%	6%	2.7%	81%
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 14:02	DFW 15:53	21%	8%	3.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON