tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CAE 06:00 → ATL 07:07DL 3038 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → EWR 10:26DL 2397 4h 26m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707 5h 14m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → CAE 07:06 → CLT 08:24AA 5870 · flown by Piedmont 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 5h 39m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CAE 07:26 → ATL 08:39DL 3061 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 4h 55m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 52m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → CAE 18:05 → ORD 19:22UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 48m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → CAE 13:47 → ATL 14:56DL 2944 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 7h 07m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 56m 99% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON