Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4259 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 19:45	IAD 21:24	16%	7%	3.0%	84%
UA 4283 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 10:31	IAD 12:09	17%	8%	0.4%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CAE 07:26 → ATL 08:39DL 3061	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 00m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CAE 06:00 → ATL 07:07DL 3038	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → IAD 10:00DL 1324	4h 00m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	5h 16m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CAE 13:47 → ATL 14:56DL 2944	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	6h 36m	99%	81%
American Details →	CAE 11:10 → CLT 12:22AA 6042 · flown by Piedmont	3h 44m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	6h 37m	99%	81%
United Details →	CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 11:06 → IAD 14:05UA 1486	7h 40m	97%	80%
United Details →	CAE 11:03 → ORD 12:25UA 4189 · flown by GoJet	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587	6h 46m	97%	76%
American Details →	CAE 16:10 → CLT 17:27AA 6046 · flown by Piedmont	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608	6h 32m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON