Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4620 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4620 CAE 07:25 → LGA 09:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4506 CAE 14:33 → LGA 16:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4620 Republic	CAE 07:25	LGA 09:27	8%	3%	1.6%	no record
DL 5131 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CAE 08:14	LGA 10:17	11%	3%	2.0%	87%
AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 14:33	LGA 16:41	20%	10%	4.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON