Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 07:51 → DCA 09:32AA 1581	4h 32m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:25 → ATL 09:28DL 3039	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 31m	100%	80%
American Details →	CHA 06:00 → DFW 07:20AA 426	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:54AA 2399	7h 54m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	CHA 17:55 → ATL 18:58DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 57m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:38DL 5039 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 12m	94%	79%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	6h 54m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	CHA 15:39 → ATL 16:43DL 3141	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	6h 10m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 17:55 → ATL 18:58DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	57m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	3h 54m	74%	55%
American Details →	CHA 16:33 → CLT 18:07AA 6051 · flown by Piedmont	46m Charlotte	CLT 18:53 → DCA 20:36AA 527	4h 03m	56%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON