Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3900 at 12:27 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3900 CHA 12:27 → DFW 13:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2037 CHA 16:10 → DFW 17:32 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3900 Envoy	CHA 12:27	DFW 13:32	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 426 American Flight history →	CHA 06:00	DFW 07:20	18%	5%	1.2%	63%
MQ 4203 Envoy	CHA 19:09	DFW 20:26	19%	8%	2.1%	no record
AA 2037 American	CHA 16:10	DFW 17:32	35%	15%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON