Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4652 at 07:10, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4652 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHA 07:10	DTW 08:58	10%	4%	1.3%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 12:07 → ATL 13:10DL 1737	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	5h 21m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 15:39 → ATL 16:43DL 3141	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	6h 52m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:25 → ATL 09:28DL 3039	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	4h 31m	90%	76%
American Details →	CHA 12:35 → CLT 14:03AA 6004 · flown by Piedmont	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 15:48 → DTW 17:36AA 1134	5h 01m	87%	63%
American Details →	CHA 17:18 → CLT 18:50AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	1h 56m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	5h 16m	92%	62%
United Details →	CHA 13:52 → ORD 14:47UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 18:33 → DTW 20:41UA 642	6h 49m	94%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON