Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4413 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 17:58	EWR 20:19	47%	30%	7.1%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707	5h 14m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 56m	96%	84%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	8h 17m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:25 → ATL 09:28DL 3039	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	5h 51m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:38DL 5039 · flown by Endeavor	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 41m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:10 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 23m	97%	72%
United Details →	CHA 16:44 → IAH 18:20UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	7h 53m	90%	71%
Delta Details →	CHA 17:55 → ATL 18:58DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	5h 51m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON