Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:44	IAH 18:20	19%	12%	0.7%	63%
UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 07:00	IAH 08:23	19%	7%	0.8%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 08:29 → IAH 10:10AA 2445	6h 10m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:25 → ATL 09:28DL 3039	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 08m	100%	83%
American Details →	CHA 06:00 → DFW 07:20AA 426	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	97%	80%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	80%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:44 → IAH 14:27AA 398	6h 08m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CHA 15:39 → ATL 16:43DL 3141	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	5h 25m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	CHA 17:55 → ATL 18:58DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 02m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 12:07 → ATL 13:10DL 1737	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	5h 32m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHA 17:58 → EWR 20:19UA 4413 · flown by GoJet	46m Newark	EWR 21:05 → IAH 23:58UA 2425	7h 00m	45%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON