Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1350 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1350 MDW 06:34 → DAL 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1559 ORD 18:29 → DFW 21:06 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1350 Southwest	MDW 06:34	DAL 09:00	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2864 Southwest	MDW 10:39	DAL 13:05	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	10%	3%	1.3%	89%
WN 1426 Southwest	MDW 14:39	DAL 17:05	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	13%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	15%	4%	1.3%	86%
F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:59	DFW 15:40	15%	8%	1.2%	64%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	15%	6%	0.8%	79%
WN 2867 Southwest	MDW 18:54	DAL 21:20	16%	6%	1.4%	no record
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:02	DFW 08:40	17%	5%	1.8%	60%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:13	19%	7%	0.7%	77%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:11	DFW 09:49	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	22%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	24%	6%	1.4%	71%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	26%	13%	0.9%	68%
AA 1459 American	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:15	28%	7%	1.4%	no record
UA 309 United	ORD 14:23	DFW 16:55	28%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	32%	17%	2.2%	65%
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	DFW 13:32	33%	8%	1.4%	41%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 16:48	DFW 19:19	34%	14%	3.7%	72%
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:04	DFW 21:37	35%	15%	10.3%	no record
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:46	DFW 16:21	35%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:13	DFW 14:41	36%	10%	1.9%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:02	DFW 17:38	39%	14%	1.9%	73%worse than usual
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 15:50	DFW 18:27	39%	14%	1.8%	73%worse than usual
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:20	DFW 23:48	42%	14%	4.4%	63%
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DFW 19:56	43%	15%	2.6%	56%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:29	DFW 21:06	47%	22%	15.1%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON