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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 57 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2905 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2905 MDW 05:56 → LGA 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3253 ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

WN 2905 Southwest MDW 05:56 LGA 09:00 4% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 2906 Southwest MDW 08:29 LGA 11:43 6% 2% 1.6% no record
UA 1657 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 8% 3% 1.3% 82%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:14 9% 2% 1.6% 77%
UA 2092 United Flight history → ORD 07:59 LGA 11:16 9% 4% 1.2% 86%
YX 5662 Republic ORD 06:01 JFK 09:15 9% 2% 0.9% no record
AA 1264 American Flight history → ORD 05:51 LGA 09:00 9% 2% 1.8% 62%
UA 1027 United ORD 06:05 EWR 09:12 11% 3% 1.2% no record
AA 2723 American Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 11% 3% 2.1% 79%
AA 699 American ORD 06:31 EWR 09:55 11% 3% 2.0% no record
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 07:54 JFK 11:23 12% 3% 1.1% 70%
UA 669 United Flight history → ORD 10:03 LGA 13:26 13% 7% 1.5% 82%
UA 1273 United ORD 07:44 EWR 10:51 13% 5% 1.3% no record
UA 2759 United Flight history → ORD 04:49 EWR 07:45 14% 3% 1.3% 47%
WN 2908 Southwest MDW 12:19 LGA 15:33 14% 4% 1.3% no record
AA 2941 American ORD 08:14 LGA 11:38 14% 3% 2.1% no record
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:37 LGA 13:47 15% 5% 1.6% 72%
UA 529 United ORD 11:10 LGA 14:30 17% 9% 1.2% no record
UA 3773 United ORD 08:12 EWR 11:04 17% 5% 1.3% no record
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 07:12 JFK 10:20 17% 3% 1.4% 88%
UA 1856 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 EWR 14:17 19% 9% 1.4% 80%
UA 2238 United ORD 09:18 EWR 12:30 19% 7% 1.3% no record
AA 3128 American Flight history → ORD 10:13 LGA 13:34 20% 6% 2.1% 71%
UA 606 United Flight history → ORD 12:11 EWR 15:39 22% 10% 1.1% 78%
WN 995 Southwest MDW 16:24 LGA 19:38 22% 5% 1.1% no record
UA 759 United Flight history → ORD 20:07 EWR 23:39 24% 9% 1.1% 65%
UA 1209 United Flight history → ORD 21:30 EWR 00:53 24% 8% 1.0% 68%
AA 1166 American Flight history → ORD 20:10 LGA 23:35 25% 7% 1.1% 52%
AA 2416 American ORD 10:11 EWR 13:35 25% 8% 2.4% no record
UA 2827 United ORD 20:03 LGA 23:17 25% 10% 1.0% no record
AA 903 American ORD 11:30 LGA 14:52 26% 7% 1.7% no record
UA 511 United ORD 16:14 LGA 19:31 26% 11% 1.2% no record
UA 1821 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 LGA 17:22 26% 13% 1.2% 65%
DL 1631 Delta ORD 14:36 LGA 17:46 27% 8% 1.3% no record
AA 512 American ORD 13:45 LGA 17:10 29% 10% 1.6% no record
UA 2133 United ORD 15:17 LGA 18:32 29% 11% 1.1% no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:40 LGA 20:50 29% 9% 1.2% 57%
AA 3163 American Flight history → ORD 12:47 LGA 16:12 30% 8% 1.7% 68%
AA 866 American ORD 15:13 LGA 18:38 30% 10% 1.6% no record
UA 2605 United Flight history → ORD 18:52 LGA 22:00 31% 12% 1.1% 54%
UA 2458 United Flight history → ORD 18:13 LGA 21:30 31% 11% 1.0% 46%
AA 774 American Flight history → ORD 18:08 LGA 21:37 32% 10% 1.3% 58%
UA 1630 United Flight history → ORD 17:21 EWR 20:39 32% 12% 1.0% 70%
AA 673 American Flight history → ORD 16:40 LGA 20:07 32% 10% 1.6% 47%
AA 2549 American Flight history → ORD 20:09 EWR 23:30 33% 11% 1.6% 45%
AA 3225 American ORD 11:37 JFK 15:00 33% 9% 1.9% no record
B6 1006 JetBlue ORD 11:02 JFK 14:11 33% 9% 1.6% no record
UA 2790 United ORD 18:13 EWR 21:31 34% 11% 1.0% no record
UA 249 United ORD 16:14 EWR 19:31 35% 11% 1.0% no record
UA 8160 United ORD 14:05 EWR 17:21 35% 15% 1.0% no record
AA 2485 American Flight history → ORD 13:37 JFK 17:00 36% 11% 1.8% 65%
UA 1236 United ORD 15:17 EWR 18:29 37% 13% 1.0% no record
AA 2224 American ORD 16:01 JFK 19:30 38% 10% 1.5% no record
AA 1936 American Flight history → ORD 13:10 EWR 16:30 40% 13% 1.8% 65%
AA 3253 American Flight history → ORD 17:36 EWR 21:00 41% 14% 1.8% 47%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 13:00 JFK 16:37 29% 14% 11.6% 71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 18:00 JFK 21:40 51% 22% 23.6% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON