tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 44 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2869 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2869 MDW 05:36 → DCA 08:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:10 → BWI 21:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2869 Southwest MDW 05:36 DCA 08:27 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 997 Southwest MDW 06:54 BWI 09:50 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4847 Southwest MDW 08:09 DCA 11:09 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1167 Southwest MDW 09:54 BWI 12:55 4% 1% 0.7% no record
YX 4494 Republic ORD 05:50 DCA 08:54 6% 1% 1.0% no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 07:12 BWI 10:17 7% 2% 1.0% 93%
AA 495 American ORD 06:57 DCA 10:09 8% 3% 0.9% no record
UA 1269 United Flight history → ORD 07:44 BWI 10:37 8% 3% 0.6% 94%
UA 2277 United Flight history → ORD 08:43 IAD 11:55 8% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 1077 United Flight history → ORD 07:14 DCA 10:07 9% 3% 0.7% 92%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:54 BWI 12:59 11% 3% 1.0% 78%
WN 439 Southwest MDW 11:09 DCA 14:09 12% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2848 Southwest MDW 14:39 BWI 17:35 12% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 315 American ORD 09:55 DCA 13:08 13% 5% 1.0% no record
WN 2873 Southwest MDW 15:44 DCA 18:39 13% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2653 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 BWI 13:57 13% 4% 0.6% 83%
YX 4758 Republic ORD 14:42 BWI 17:56 14% 5% 1.0% no record
AA 523 American Flight history → ORD 08:56 DCA 12:03 14% 5% 1.0% 79%
AA 1200 American Flight history → ORD 10:37 DCA 13:48 15% 6% 1.0% 61%
AA 2345 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 10:59 15% 4% 1.0% 77%
WN 4305 Southwest MDW 18:14 DCA 21:14 15% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 1486 United ORD 11:06 IAD 14:05 16% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 2849 Southwest MDW 16:49 BWI 19:50 16% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1128 United ORD 13:05 IAD 16:07 16% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2668 United Flight history → ORD 11:15 DCA 14:22 17% 6% 0.7% 69%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 18:28 BWI 21:40 17% 6% 1.2% 79%
UA 587 United Flight history → ORD 14:51 IAD 17:49 18% 6% 0.6% 73%
UA 1314 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 DCA 17:12 20% 7% 0.7% 56%
UA 2737 United ORD 14:44 BWI 17:48 20% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1922 United ORD 22:06 IAD 00:56 20% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2160 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 DCA 22:54 22% 8% 0.8% 56%
UA 1369 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 DCA 21:10 22% 8% 0.7% 50%
AA 789 American ORD 13:22 DCA 16:40 22% 7% 1.0% no record
AA 489 American Flight history → ORD 17:02 DCA 20:16 22% 8% 1.0% 70%
AA 535 American ORD 20:47 DCA 23:51 23% 7% 1.0% no record
AA 514 American ORD 17:56 DCA 21:10 23% 8% 1.1% no record
UA 2202 United Flight history → ORD 18:12 IAD 21:22 23% 7% 0.6% 57%
AA 1187 American Flight history → ORD 18:57 DCA 22:10 24% 9% 1.0% 58%
UA 220 United ORD 20:03 BWI 23:06 26% 8% 0.6% no record
AA 2769 American Flight history → ORD 14:55 DCA 17:59 26% 7% 0.9% 74%
UA 304 United ORD 19:48 IAD 22:33 26% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2761 United ORD 16:58 DCA 19:57 26% 8% 0.8% no record
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history → ORD 12:54 BWI 16:05 27% 8% 1.5% 65%
UA 1557 United ORD 18:10 BWI 21:06 30% 10% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON