Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3055 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3055 CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 2174 CHS 18:24 → ATL 19:42 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3055 Delta Flight history →	CHS 05:55	ATL 07:07	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	CHS 10:40	ATL 11:53	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2124 Delta Flight history →	CHS 09:10	ATL 10:20	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 789 Delta Flight history →	CHS 08:05	ATL 09:19	9%	2%	0.7%	98%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	CHS 12:59	ATL 14:12	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 14:53	ATL 16:09	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	CHS 17:00	ATL 18:19	15%	5%	3.2%	85%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	CHS 18:24	ATL 19:42	21%	8%	3.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON