tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07DL 3055 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CHS 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 789 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 6h 46m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:10 → ATL 10:20DL 2124 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → CHS 07:52 → ORD 09:20UA 2333 2h 27m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 49m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:01 → MIA 07:48AA 1763 1h 37m Miami MIA 09:25 → AUS 11:27AA 812 6h 26m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CHS 12:59 → ATL 14:12DL 3107 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 6h 51m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 47m Newark EWR 09:46 → AUS 12:36UA 1238 7h 36m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 12:18 → AUS 14:08AA 1052 6h 20m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON