Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5562 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5562 CHS 06:13 → CLT 07:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3117 CHS 17:31 → CLT 18:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5562 PSA	CHS 06:13	CLT 07:22	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5309 PSA	CHS 12:25	CLT 13:38	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CHS 10:28	CLT 11:36	15%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 08:07	CLT 09:11	16%	3%	0.9%	98%worse than usual
OH 5166 PSA	CHS 14:09	CLT 15:17	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 1586 American Flight history →	CHS 20:18	CLT 21:22	28%	8%	2.1%	76%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 17:31	CLT 18:43	31%	7%	1.7%	54%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 08:48	CLT 10:15	7%	0%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON