Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1289 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1289 CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2693 CHS 15:08 → EWR 17:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1289 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	EWR 07:59	5%	2%	1.5%	91%
UA 674 United Flight history →	CHS 11:24	EWR 13:26	14%	6%	1.6%	89%
UA 3416 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 19:24	EWR 21:51	23%	7%	7.1%	84%
UA 2693 United Flight history →	CHS 15:08	EWR 17:04	38%	13%	1.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON