Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1155 United	CHS 06:54	IAH 08:42	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 6329 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	CHS 17:06	IAH 19:01	19%	7%	2.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07DL 3055	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682	6h 16m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:09 → DTW 09:27DL 5092 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → IAH 14:30DL 1307	8h 21m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 789	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 28m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CHS 14:53 → ATL 16:09DL 2179	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	6h 11m	97%	79%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	2h 52m Newark	EWR 10:51 → IAH 13:36UA 556	8h 36m	99%	77%
United Details →	CHS 07:52 → ORD 09:20UA 2333	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	8h 47m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	CHS 10:40 → ATL 11:53DL 3091	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	6h 59m	99%	76%
American Details →	CHS 06:47 → DFW 08:49AA 1435	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	93%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CHS 15:08 → EWR 17:04UA 2693	50m Newark	EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782	6h 47m	47%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON