Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5445 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 5445 CHS 05:56 → JFK 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 5200 CHS 17:35 → JFK 19:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5445 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 05:56	JFK 07:49	6%	2%	2.1%	91%
DL 5015 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 12:52	JFK 15:07	12%	4%	2.6%	76%
B6 2474 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 10:58	JFK 12:59	20%	7%	2.4%	78%
DL 5200 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CHS 17:35	JFK 19:51	21%	6%	3.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON