Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4580 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 4580 CHS 06:55 → LGA 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1060 CHS 13:05 → LGA 15:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4580 Republic	CHS 06:55	LGA 08:55	5%	3%	2.2%	no record
AA 4664 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 11:16	LGA 13:29	7%	4%	2.7%	88%
DL 1060 Delta	CHS 13:05	LGA 15:02	22%	7%	1.8%	no record
DL 5093 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 07:00	LGA 09:00	16%	7%	7.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON