Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1233 at 08:28, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1233 Southwest	CHS 08:28	MDW 09:50	5%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07DL 3055	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 47m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CHS 10:40 → ATL 11:53DL 3091	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 50m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 15m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:10 → DTW 09:19DL 5092 · flown by Endeavor	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 36m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:00 → DTW 15:11DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON