Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1763 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CHS 06:01	MIA 07:48	13%	3%	1.2%	96%
MQ 3867 Envoy	CHS 18:34	MIA 20:23	37%	8%	2.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07DL 3055	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 08m	97%	77%
American Details →	CHS 16:09 → DCA 17:55AA 1040	3h 09m Washington	DCA 21:04 → MIA 23:48AA 2214	7h 39m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m New York	JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514	8h 22m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:10 → ATL 10:20DL 2124	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	6h 33m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 789	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 02m	91%	71%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	1h 08m Newark	EWR 09:07 → MIA 12:19UA 2785	6h 19m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:00 → LGA 09:00DL 5093 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	CHS 10:40 → ATL 11:53DL 3091	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → MIA 16:35DL 1386	5h 55m	98%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHS 17:31 → CLT 18:43AA 3117	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 19:48 → MIA 21:50AA 565	4h 19m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON