Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2333 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 07:52 → ORD 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2154 CHS 14:09 → ORD 15:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 07:52	ORD 09:20	10%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3187 American	CHS 07:20	ORD 08:53	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:21	ORD 12:47	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3868 Envoy	CHS 19:49	ORD 21:16	20%	5%	6.3%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 18:57	ORD 20:32	21%	8%	4.7%	57%
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:53	ORD 18:16	23%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2154 American	CHS 14:09	ORD 15:37	28%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON