tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:55 → ATL 07:07DL 3055 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400 4h 11m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:10 → ATL 10:20DL 2124 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 6h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CHS 08:05 → ATL 09:19DL 789 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 5h 25m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → CHS 10:40 → ATL 11:53DL 3091 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 59m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 1h 58m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096 5h 22m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CHS 14:53 → ATL 16:09DL 2179 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 6h 44m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:24 → ATL 19:42DL 2174 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403 5h 56m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → CHS 07:52 → ORD 09:20UA 2333 3h 35m Chicago ORD 12:55 → STL 14:23UA 4581 · flown by GoJet 7h 31m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON