Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1039 at 08:05, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1039 American Flight history →	CID 08:05	CLT 11:20	22%	5%	1.6%	89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 16:18 → MSP 17:51DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 26m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CID 05:45 → ATL 08:47DL 2518	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 46m	97%	81%
American Details →	CID 05:03 → ORD 06:22AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 08:07 → CLT 11:15AA 411	5h 12m	96%	75%
American Details →	CID 05:03 → DFW 07:16AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → CLT 13:24AA 2493	7h 21m	96%	71%
American Details →	CID 12:42 → DFW 14:49AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703	8h 13m	100%	64%
United Details →	CID 15:16 → DEN 16:31UA 514	1h 14m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	6h 52m	87%	62%
United Details →	CID 15:31 → ORD 16:54UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	4h 58m	82%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON