Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 13:38, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	CID 13:38	DCA 17:00	16%	5%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:38 → MSP 08:10DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 10m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	CID 16:18 → MSP 17:51DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	6h 40m	98%	86%
American Details →	CID 05:03 → ORD 06:22AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → DCA 13:08AA 315	7h 05m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CID 05:45 → ATL 08:47DL 2518	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 07m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	CID 12:09 → MSP 13:30DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 00m	92%	82%
American Details →	CID 05:03 → DFW 07:16AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:54AA 2399	7h 51m	96%	79%
United Details →	CID 15:31 → ORD 16:54UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	6h 23m	96%	72%
American Details →	CID 08:05 → CLT 11:20AA 1039	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	7h 08m	92%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CID 15:31 → ORD 16:54UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	4h 39m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON