Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3849 CID 07:41 → DFW 09:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4318 CID 18:05 → DFW 20:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3849 Envoy	CID 07:41	DFW 09:58	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 3564 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:03	DFW 07:16	13%	4%	1.7%	91%
AA 4297 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 12:42	DFW 14:49	17%	5%	1.2%	96%worse than usual
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 18:05	DFW 20:21	19%	7%	2.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON