Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5715 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 5715 CID 06:37 → ORD 08:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5615 CID 18:43 → ORD 20:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5715 SkyWest	CID 06:37	ORD 08:01	11%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 3430 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:03	ORD 06:22	12%	6%	2.2%	91%
UA 2401 United	CID 07:59	ORD 09:07	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
G7 4482 GoJet	CID 10:45	ORD 12:13	18%	7%	2.4%	no record
MQ 3732 Envoy	CID 11:53	ORD 13:24	23%	6%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	CID 20:27	ORD 21:37	24%	6%	3.0%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	CID 13:42	ORD 15:11	25%	8%	1.9%	no record
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	CID 15:31	ORD 16:54	26%	12%	2.4%	71%
OO 5615 SkyWest	CID 18:43	ORD 20:13	28%	9%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON