Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4983 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 07:50	PHX 09:16	11%	5%	1.3%	86%
AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:30	PHX 15:49	15%	5%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:38 → MSP 08:10DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 08m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CID 05:45 → ATL 08:47DL 2518	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	8h 31m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	CID 12:09 → MSP 13:30DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284	5h 29m	91%	79%
United Details →	CID 08:50 → DEN 10:04UA 1500	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631	7h 22m	96%	78%
American Details →	CID 05:03 → DFW 07:16AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905	8h 00m	96%	75%
United Details →	CID 15:16 → DEN 16:31UA 514	2h 35m Denver	DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507	6h 45m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	CID 16:18 → MSP 17:51DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	57m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	5h 48m	84%	69%
American Details →	CID 12:42 → DFW 14:49AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:30 → PHX 17:10AA 1232	6h 28m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON