Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2734 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2734 CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2467 CLE 06:40 → ATL 09:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2734 Delta Flight history →	CLE 05:46	ATL 07:35	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 349 Delta Flight history →	CLE 08:05	ATL 09:55	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2838 Delta Flight history →	CLE 07:05	ATL 08:54	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	CLE 11:06	ATL 12:57	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	CLE 14:24	ATL 16:16	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 880 Delta Flight history →	CLE 18:18	ATL 20:24	15%	6%	2.3%	87%
F9 2467 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:40	ATL 09:01	15%	6%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON