tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1694 Southwest CLE 05:56 BWI 07:23 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4744 Southwest CLE 15:21 BWI 16:50 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Boston BOS 09:31 → BWI 11:13DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 08m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 8h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 7h 21m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 15m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 57m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 13:00 → BOS 15:03DL 5641 · flown by Republic 2h 02m Boston BOS 17:05 → BWI 19:02DL 5644 · flown by Republic 6h 02m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 3h 42m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 6h 19m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 1h 43m Denver DEN 14:09 → BWI 19:30UA 363 8h 20m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 11:06 → ATL 12:57DL 1500 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267 6h 39m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON