Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2710 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2710 CLE 06:04 → CLT 07:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1562 CLE 16:36 → CLT 18:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2710 American	CLE 06:04	CLT 07:45	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1446 American	CLE 09:37	CLT 11:18	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5617 PSA	CLE 14:41	CLT 16:30	18%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 568 American	CLE 13:15	CLT 14:53	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1562 American Flight history →	CLE 16:36	CLT 18:18	28%	6%	0.9%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON