Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5413 CLE 07:14 → DCA 08:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest MQ 3915 CLE 16:36 → DCA 18:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5413 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 07:14	DCA 08:46	10%	3%	1.3%	80%
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 13:25	DCA 15:07	13%	4%	1.3%	69%
MQ 3915 Envoy	CLE 16:36	DCA 18:04	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON