Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2246 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2246 CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1202 CLE 17:26 → DEN 18:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 2502 Southwest	CLE 11:06	DEN 12:33	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:45	DEN 10:00	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	12%	4%	0.5%	82%
WN 1202 Southwest	CLE 17:26	DEN 18:53	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON