Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3924 at 16:03, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3924 SkyWest	CLE 16:03	DTW 17:15	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 5192 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:26	DTW 11:26	17%	10%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	5h 42m	97%	90%
United Details →	CLE 06:07 → IAH 08:13UA 1645	1h 32m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	7h 35m	98%	88%
United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 20m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa	4h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Boston	BOS 09:10 → DTW 11:19DL 1748	5h 14m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861	5h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:54DL 2838	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 51m	99%	84%
American Details →	CLE 09:44 → ORD 10:30AA 6363 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 13:12 → DTW 15:38AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	97%	82%
American Details →	CLE 07:14 → DCA 08:46AA 5413 · flown by PSA	1h 18m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	4h 41m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON