Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 601 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 06:54 → EWR 08:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1892 CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 06:54	EWR 08:34	5%	2%	1.2%	94%
UA 2782 United	CLE 12:20	EWR 14:06	16%	8%	1.2%	no record
YX 3651 Republic	CLE 18:59	EWR 21:00	20%	7%	2.7%	no record
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 16:36	EWR 18:36	22%	8%	2.8%	no record
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:50	EWR 17:31	29%	12%	1.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON