Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 715 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 715 CLE 07:36 → FLL 10:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1046 CLE 07:45 → FLL 10:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 715 United Flight history →	CLE 07:36	FLL 10:20	13%	3%	2.6%	94%
UA 2724 United Flight history →	CLE 11:27	FLL 14:17	18%	6%	1.9%	90%
B6 2289 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 07:50	FLL 10:45	21%	7%	4.0%	95%worse than usual
F9 1046 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 07:45	FLL 10:36	24%	5%	3.5%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON