tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1252 at 06:00, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1252 United Flight history → CLE 06:00 IAD 07:15 3% 1% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 6h 21m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 33m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 1h 07m Chicago ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277 4h 55m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 8h 12m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:54 → EWR 08:34UA 601 1h 32m Newark EWR 10:06 → IAD 11:31UA 1618 4h 37m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 14:24 → ATL 16:16DL 775 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 5h 59m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:53 → ORD 09:25UA 656 3h 40m Chicago ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128 7h 14m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 11:06 → ATL 12:57DL 1500 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 6h 08m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 1h 04m Chicago ORD 19:48 → IAD 22:33UA 304 4h 28m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON