Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1645 United Flight history →	CLE 06:07	IAH 08:13	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1545 United Flight history →	CLE 15:11	IAH 17:25	9%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 59m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 28m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682	6h 25m	99%	82%
American Details →	CLE 05:58 → DFW 07:57AA 1590	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	99%	82%
American Details →	CLE 05:58 → PHL 07:40AA 3302	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 08:42 → IAH 11:20AA 840	6h 22m	94%	82%
United Details →	CLE 08:45 → DEN 10:00UA 690	3h 30m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	9h 19m	100%	81%
United Details →	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	3h 09m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	9h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CLE 14:24 → ATL 16:16DL 775	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	6h 40m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON