Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 765 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 765 CLE 09:50 → LAS 11:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3231 CLE 19:13 → LAS 20:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 765 United	CLE 09:50	LAS 11:20	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1457 Southwest	CLE 16:26	LAS 18:09	23%	10%	1.3%	no record
F9 3231 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 19:13	LAS 20:37	26%	10%	1.4%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	1h 04m Denver	DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493	6h 28m	95%	77%
United Details →	CLE 16:38 → DEN 18:03UA 486	1h 02m Denver	DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655	6h 30m	88%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON