tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 11:10, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1041 United CLE 07:20 LAX 09:21 10% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 679 United Flight history → CLE 15:42 LAX 17:38 10% 4% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 07m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 2h 48m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 58m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 15m Dulles IAD 09:30 → LAX 12:05UA 657 9h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 3h 17m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 9h 05m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:58 → PHL 07:40AA 3302 3h 20m Philadelphia PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408 10h 48m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:07 → IAH 08:13UA 1645 1h 40m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 23m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 14:24 → ATL 16:16DL 775 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996 8h 57m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:01 → MIA 09:00AA 2887 55m Miami MIA 09:55 → LAX 12:24AA 3288 9h 23m 75% 58%
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 17:34 → LAX 20:19AA 3123 8h 16m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON