Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4513 CLE 09:51 → LGA 11:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest DL 5782 CLE 13:55 → LGA 15:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4513 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 09:51	LGA 11:36	6%	3%	1.7%	62%
YX 4372 Republic	CLE 12:25	LGA 14:12	9%	6%	1.7%	no record
DL 5782 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 13:55	LGA 15:40	12%	7%	1.4%	72%
DL 5177 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:00	LGA 07:42	13%	7%	6.3%	87%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:51	26%	14%	7.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON