Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2636 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:00 → MCO 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3916 CLE 14:48 → MCO 17:24 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:00	MCO 10:27	10%	3%	6.6%	92%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 11:23	MCO 14:02	10%	4%	4.6%	92%
WN 972 Southwest	CLE 12:26	MCO 15:01	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	14%	4%	5.6%	83%
F9 1056 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 19:56	MCO 22:42	18%	8%	2.1%	86%
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:48	MCO 17:24	21%	7%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON