Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1207 Southwest	CLE 09:06	MDW 09:40	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 850 Southwest	CLE 17:21	MDW 17:50	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 56m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 11:06 → ATL 12:57DL 1500	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 24m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m	82%	67%
Delta Details →	CLE 18:18 → ATL 20:24DL 880	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 57m	80%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON