tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2887 at 06:01, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2887 American Flight history → CLE 06:01 MIA 09:00 13% 3% 1.1% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 30m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 09:01 → MIA 13:40DL 793 7h 40m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 17m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → CLE 13:55 → LGA 15:40DL 5782 · flown by Republic 3h 19m New York LGA 18:59 → MIA 22:36DL 1620 8h 41m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:54DL 2838 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 02m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:07 → IAH 08:13UA 1645 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 9h 40m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → CLE 07:14 → DCA 08:46AA 5413 · flown by PSA 1h 16m Washington DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401 5h 44m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:58 → PHL 07:40AA 3302 3h 52m Philadelphia PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989 8h 31m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 13:00 → LGA 14:47DL 5045 · flown by Endeavor 53m New York LGA 15:40 → MIA 19:23DL 2300 6h 23m 70% 48%
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:31 → PHL 21:09AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 46m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 5h 21m 70% 48%
AmericanDetails → CLE 17:13 → DFW 19:13AA 1554 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090 6h 50m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON