Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3841 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3841 CLE 05:34 → ORD 05:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1673 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3841 Envoy	CLE 05:34	ORD 05:52	9%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 08:53	ORD 09:25	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:46	ORD 11:22	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	13%	5%	1.0%	76%
OO 6319 SkyWest	CLE 15:01	ORD 15:43	22%	9%	1.6%	no record
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:28	ORD 13:06	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 4932 SkyWest	CLE 13:10	ORD 13:52	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	22%	8%	0.6%	68%
OO 4904 SkyWest	CLE 17:17	ORD 17:58	26%	8%	1.5%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	CLE 20:53	ORD 21:22	27%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 2315 United Flight history →	CLE 16:16	ORD 16:48	29%	8%	0.7%	64%
OO 4748 SkyWest	CLE 19:46	ORD 20:24	30%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	33%	8%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON