tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 10:26, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3110 American Flight history → CLE 07:36 PHX 08:55 12% 4% 0.7% 86%
WN 975 Southwest CLE 14:16 PHX 15:48 13% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:34 → PHX 10:31UA 709 7h 31m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 7h 33m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 3h 09m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 8h 25m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:07 → IAH 08:13UA 1645 1h 27m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 27m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 9h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 13m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:58 → PHL 07:40AA 3302 3h 14m Philadelphia PHL 10:54 → PHX 13:01AA 478 10h 03m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → CLE 19:13 → LAS 20:37F9 3231 49m Las Vegas LAS 21:26 → PHX 22:52F9 9432 6h 39m 61% 47%
AmericanDetails → CLE 17:13 → DFW 19:13AA 1554 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → PHX 20:44AA 3232 6h 31m 70% 45%
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:50 → EWR 17:31UA 1892 48m Newark EWR 18:19 → PHX 20:38UA 676 7h 48m 58% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON