Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 262 Alaska	CLE 08:15	SEA 10:30	22%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 27m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 21m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	3h 22m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:49DL 332	11h 44m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	CLE 11:06 → ATL 12:57DL 1500	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	8h 37m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	CLE 13:00 → BOS 15:03DL 5641 · flown by Republic	3h 47m Boston	BOS 18:50 → SEA 22:25DL 324	12h 25m	99%	77%
United Details →	CLE 06:07 → IAH 08:13UA 1645	3h 54m Houston	IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228	11h 46m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON