tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:28, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1250 United CLE 08:53 SFO 11:14 9% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 32m Dulles IAD 09:47 → SFO 12:34UA 1773 9h 34m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 84%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 28m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 2h 58m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 11h 29m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 47m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → CLE 10:47 → JFK 12:33AA 4588 · flown by Republic 3h 57m New York JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:05AA 15 12h 18m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:38 → DEN 18:03UA 486 3h 07m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 9h 18m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902 7h 39m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 6h 51m 74% 58%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 18:02 → BOS 19:58B6 640 57m Boston BOS 20:55 → SFO 00:30 +1B6 413 9h 28m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON