Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 2683 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 12:34	TPA 15:21	18%	6%	2.5%	80%
F9 1491 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:20	TPA 20:57	27%	10%	1.9%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 45m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	5h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:14DL 2264	8h 14m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	6h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:46 → ATL 07:35DL 2734	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	5h 51m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:54DL 2838	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 34m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	3h 01m Boston	BOS 11:08 → TPA 14:23DL 1439	8h 18m	100%	80%
American Details →	CLE 05:58 → PHL 07:40AA 3302	1h 26m Philadelphia	PHL 09:06 → TPA 12:00AA 1981	6h 02m	97%	80%
United Details →	CLE 06:54 → EWR 08:34UA 601	3h 49m Newark	EWR 12:23 → TPA 15:23UA 1273	8h 29m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	56m New York	JFK 20:05 → TPA 23:25DL 1636	6h 10m	70%	51%
JetBlue Details →	CLE 18:02 → BOS 19:58B6 640	1h 05m Boston	BOS 21:03 → TPA 00:22 +1B6 591	6h 20m	74%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON