Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3186 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 06:00 → ATL 07:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5067 CLT 18:20 → ATL 19:49 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	ATL 07:11	7%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:05	ATL 09:19	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1656 Delta	CLT 09:05	ATL 10:20	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5552 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:38	ATL 12:07	14%	4%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
OH 5207 PSA	CLT 08:32	ATL 10:00	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 5498 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:36	ATL 23:58	20%	6%	1.7%	70%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:30	ATL 15:56	21%	4%	0.9%	73%
DL 8861 Delta	CLT 16:59	ATL 18:15	24%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 1724 Delta	CLT 17:04	ATL 18:20	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
OH 5269 PSA	CLT 19:42	ATL 21:08	29%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:20	ATL 19:49	30%	9%	2.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON